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Today’s Top Picks: Analyzing the many QB injuries and the best Monday Night Football bet
NFL quarterbacks are falling by the wayside at an alarming rate. On Monday morning, it was announced that New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees will be for at least six weeks and Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will miss the rest of the season. In those cases, it could be another instance of time catching up to us all.
Both Brees and Roethlisberger will one day be in Canton, and both have continued to play well later into their respective careers. Brees turned 40 in January and Big Ben celebrated his 37th birthday two months later. Both are closer to the end of their career than the start, and we usually see QBs of this age not named Tom Brady suffer injuries like this that they’re never able to overcome. I hope that’s not the case this time.
Then there’s the other end of the spectrum, where QBs are so young they’re still coming down with mono. That’s why Sam Darnold won’t be under center for the New York Jets on Monday night, and that game is where we find the first of my three picks for tonight.
I got the Browns -2.5 in my NFL picks column last Thursday before the Sam Darnold news broke. I loved it then, and I love it now, but I don’t love the Browns -6.5. That’s where the line is now that everyone has reacted to the Darnold injury. So I’m pivoting a bit with this under pick. I don’t trust the Cleveland Browns — you know, the Cleveland Browns — as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road in a spotlight game. Instead, I’ll bank on the Jets offense looking to stay as conservative as possible with Trevor Siemian, and keep that Browns offense on the field. I still think Cleveland wins, and I think it covers more often than not, but I think the under comes through more often than any other possibility.
Usually, I’m fading a pitcher like Stephen Strasburg in this spot, as he’s the best pitcher on the bump tonight, and those teams are often overvalued. That’s not the case here, however, as the Nats are on the road. Still, the Cardinals offense is average, and their starter tonight is nothing exceptional. Dakota Hudson gets a lot of groundballs, but he doesn’t miss bats, he walks a lot of hitters, and gives up plenty of hard contact. I enjoy fading those pitchers even more than aces. Take the Nats at a reasonable price.
Another staple on the menu! I love overs in Robbie Ray starts. He’s continuously overvalued when it comes to totals in his starts. Yes, he strikes out a ton of hitters, but he walks a ton as well. There’s a reason the over has gone 33-16-2 in Ray’s last 51 home starts. Going against an offense as weak as Miami’s has kept this total even lower than where it should be, but I like this matchup for the Marlins offense. They’ll do enough to help us get past 9 runs.